For the first time in at least fifty years, US labour supply is running well below labour demand, meaning the US economy is ‘inverted’. We discuss how and why the economy inverted, and what it means for recession, inflation, and asset allocation. Plus: NVDA is at a consolidation point....
Thematic investing has become increasingly important for investors over the past few years. However, the vast majority of investors underperform when investing in thematic strategies. In this report we provide three tips for investors who wish to allocate to thematic strategies. These tips have litt...
In this Strategy Outlook we examine why, contrary to popular perception, the odds of a global recession over the next 12 months are rising not falling....
GAI is a powerful force that will revolutionize the global economy and we are sold on this long-term investment theme. To partake in the upward momentum, we recommend a nuanced approach. The GAI infrastructure cohort is now overbought - there should be a better entry point. The models and applicatio...
In this Insight, we continue our series of reports outlining investment frameworks for inflation-linked bonds in the developed markets, this time focusing on Japan. Our Japanese Inflation-Linked Golden Rule suggests that investors should overweight Japanese inflation-linked bonds versus nominal JGBs...
AI is not the Early-Stage bet investors should be making. It is obvious and highly competitive. Venture Capital is not about direct competition but about pioneering new directions. While everyone is distracted with AI, investors should look to Aerospace & Space Technology. Strategic buyers will prov...
The US Presidential election is eight months away. In this report, we will be looking at what is left of President Biden’s political capital and his room for actions in the next few months which may include market-negative actions such as the recently announced investigation into Apple....
Despite a couple of rate cuts in H2 2024, borrowing costs will remain elevated in real terms amid lower inflation in the US and Europe. This and tightening fiscal policy will hinder domestic demand in advanced economies. Domestic demand in China and EM ex-China will remain very tepid, with risks ske...
