We expect oil-demand growth to increase this year – to 1.7mm b/d from 1.4mm b/d (0.30% of total demand) – and anticipate tighter supply at the margin. Our balances estimates are unchanged, leaving our Brent price forecasts for 2024 and ’25 at $95/bbl and $105/bbl. We expect the US to deploy warships...
In this joint Foreign Exchange Strategy and Global Investment Strategy Special Report, we assess economic activity in Sweden, a highly cyclical and trade-oriented economy, and its implications for the global growth outlook....
The Bank of Japan delivered a historic policy adjustment this week, ending both negative interest rates and Yield Curve Control. In this Insight, BCA’s global fixed income and currency strategists discuss the immediate implications of the move for Japanese bond yields and the yen, and the potential ...
Deflation remains prevalent in the Chinese economy. The longer authorities delay a big bang-type stimulus, the more entrenched deflation will become. Hence, a cyclical upswing in Chinese stocks is unlikely, although there might be short-term rebounds....
GAI technology has made tremendous gains over the past year. It has advanced from being a mere “curiosity” to becoming an everyday helper. While the promise of GAI is enormous, its effects are still limited: Companies are still struggling with monetization while productivity improvement is still at ...
Turkey’s macro policy stance can hardly be called orthodox. And yet, corporate profit margins will contract meaningfully this year. The lira can also fall massively even if inflation eases from the extremely high levels – just as it did in the 1990s....
Improved consumer morale will not compensate for the fading tailwinds to consumption. Neither will the wealth effects from higher stocks and home prices....
We assess where emerging markets debt is on a strategic and cyclical basis. We find it has benefited from local central banks boosting their inflation-fighting credentials and governments improving financial stability. As a result, EM debt is behaving less like a risk-on asset, changing the role it ...
