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Emerging Markets

Essentials
China: A Demand-Driven Deflation Is Forthcoming
The predominant risk to China’s economy is demand-driven deflation. Very weak demand-side data highlight that a lack of demand, rather than supply-side improvements, is driving disinflation in China. Core and service consumer inflation now stand at only 0.6%…
4 years ago
GeoMacro
Take Iran Threats Seriously

Expect the Middle East to create new and unexpected energy supply disruptions on top of the Russian energy shock.

Matt Gertken
4 years ago
CoreMacro
China: Heading Into Deflation

China's economy is about to experience demand-driven deflation. The lack of an economic recovery and falling producer prices will depress corporate profits and, hence, share prices. Beijing will allow the yuan to depreciate more to prop up its economy.

Qingyun Xu
4 years ago
China
Essentials
Chinese PMIs Contract In October
The Chinese manufacturing PMI from the National Bureau of Statistics contracted anew in October, after briefly improving above the 50 boom-bust line in September. The headline index decreased from 50.1 to 49.2, missing expectations. Notably, production…
4 years ago
Essentials
Brazil: Left Turn Ahead
On Monday, investors cheered former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s (Lula) victory over incumbent Jair Bolsonaro in the second round of Brazil’s presidential election held over the weekend. However, Brazil’s financial markets are at risk of experiencing…
4 years ago
GeoMacro
Naïve Readings Of The Twentieth Party Congress (A GeoRisk Update)

Stay short Greater China assets. Stay long Japanese yen. Hold back on Brazil for now but look forward to opportunities in future.

Matt Gertken, Jesse Kuri, Guy Russell
4 years ago
China
Essentials
China’s Industrial Profit Contraction Is Deepening
Chinese industrial profit growth continues to shrink, down 2.3% ytd y/y in the first three quarters of 2022. The weakness is particularly pronounced among downstream sectors. Profits of manufacturers contracted by 13.2% ytd y/y while mining and quarrying…
4 years ago
Essentials
An Opportunity In Hungarian Domestic Bonds
According to our Emerging Markets strategists, Hungarian 10-year domestic bonds offer a good medium-term investment opportunity. The team believes that Hungarian growth has already peaked and is headed towards a recession. Given that exports make up a…
4 years ago
CoreMacro
On Capitulation And Good Versus Bad Disinflation

We recommend that investors use the following framework to think about whether potential disinflation would be bullish or bearish for share prices: disinflation will prove to be bullish for global share prices if it is due to an improvement in supply-side dynamics, but bearish if it is demand driven. We believe it is the latter.

Arthur Budaghyan
4 years ago
Essentials
Takeaways From China’s 20th Party Congress
According to BCA Research’s China Investment Strategy service, messages from the Party Congress suggest that China’s policymakers will continue to balance the trade-offs between short-term economic growth, socio-political stability and the nation's long-term…
4 years ago

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