Economy
The Q4 2024 Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey showed improving business optimism, with the overall index ticking up to -1.2, and a net 31% of surveyed businesses expecting higher sales, compared to 13% in Q3. Improved expectations reflect looser…
Our US Bond Strategy team put out a Strategy Insight outlining the value they see in the Treasury market. The recent rise in Treasury yields reflects increased inflation uncertainty and a higher term premium. Treasury yields now offer an attractive risk…
President Trump’s inaugural speech outlined his second term agenda. The theme was that the US will become “far more exceptional” than it already is. Trump pledged to reverse America’s decline, rebalance the justice system, streamline government, protect…
President Trump is about to be inaugurated. Investors often assume all his policies will hurt Europe, but the reality is more nuanced.
Our US Political strategists published a Special Report on the trade and fiscal policies likely to be implemented on Day One as the Trump administration takes over Washington. Trump is likely to implement significant tariffs early in his term, capitalizing on…
Our Chart Of The Week comes from Marko Papic, Chief Strategist of our GeoMacro Strategy service. Marko has argued that the most important macro story over the past decade has been the transition from the Washington Consensus, promoting fiscal conservatism, to…
Chinese activity was decent in December, with GDP growth topping the 5% target for 2024. Industrial production growth ticked up to 6.2% y/y from 5.4% in November. Retail sales also picked up, increasing to 3.7% from 3.0% a month prior. New and used home…
US December housing data was strong, with housing starts printing above estimates at 1.49m, an acceleration from an upwardly-revised 1.29m in November. Building permits also surprised positively at 1.483m, but still decreased from 1.493m a month prior. The…
December US retail sales missed estimates, with the headline number printing at 0.4% m/m, a decline from an upwardly revised 0.8% in November. On the positive side, the control group beat estimates at 0.7%. Netting it all out, the report was uninspiring, and…
The January Philly Fed Manufacturing index blew past estimates, soaring to 44.3 vs. a revised 10.9 points contraction in December. Most subcomponents rose for both the current and expected categories. Measures of prices paid and received also ticked up. We…