Developed Countries
According to BCA Research’s US Political Strategy service, former President Trump still has a path to come back to power, despite his disastrous performance in the debate with Vice President Kamala Harris on September 10. A cascade of shifting opinion…
US headline CPI eased from 2.9% y/y to 2.5% in August in line with consensus predictions. However, core CPI unexpectedly accelerated from 0.2% m/m to 0.3%. Aside from airfares -- a highly volatile series which is likely to reverse in coming months given the…
Following a 12-year-long bear market, Greek equities have returned a whopping 186% in EUR terms from their 2016 lows. The Greek macroeconomic backdrop has indeed improved. Since 2021, Greece’s nominal GDP growth has exceeded the pace of growth in borrowing…
The decline in oil prices accelerated this month. Although Wednesday’s moves reversed Tuesday’s sharp daily declines, Brent and WTI have fallen 11% and 10% so far in September, and 30% and 33% from their April peaks. Deteriorating demand likely drove these…
Our reaction to this morning’s CPI report and what it means for Fed policy.
Despite the disastrous performance by former President Trump in the debate with Vice President Kamala Harris, there are still paths for him to come back to power. The economy and global instability could flare up anytime between now and election day, while quirks in the Electoral College ensure that the election will be close. The race is still competitive and policy uncertainty and volatility will be elevated.
Consumer credit rose by USD 25.5bn in July (to USD 5,093.7 bn outstanding), more than twice the expected growth. However, revisions suggest that June’s consumer credit growth was slower than initially reported (USD 8.9bn to 5.2bn). Nonrevolving credit…
US small business optimism unexpectedly shed 2.5 points to 91.2 in August, the largest monthly decline since 2022, retracing nearly half of the index’s advance since March. The NFIB Small Business Optimism has oscillated in a tight range since 2022 but…
The BoE embarked on its easing cycle in August, delivering its first 25 bps rate cut. The decision was nowhere near unanimous, with 5 MPCs out of 9 voting in favor of lowering policy rates. Indeed, while headline inflation is sitting right on the central…
According to BCA Research’s Private Markets & Alternatives service, the Sports Franchise market presents a compelling opportunity for Private Equity due to its strong growth potential, evolving business models, and monopolistic properties. Sports team values…