Latest from BCA Research

Bank Credit Analyst

In Section I, Doug warns that US trade policy may produce a considerably worse outcome than investors currently expect. The administration’s apparent 10% tariff baseline is likely to be negative for the US economy and particularly the small business sector. Investors should remain defensively positioned for now, although judicial constraints on the administration’s ability to wage a trade war, if confirmed, would sharply reduce our estimated recession probability. In Section II, Jonathan discusses the arguments in favor and against the view that US inflation will be structurally elevated over the longer term. Our base case view remains that US inflation will not be significantly above 2%, but this view may change if US tariffs are put in place permanently and the US avoids a recession.

Bank Credit Analyst

In Section II, Jonathan discusses the arguments in favor and against the view that US inflation will be structurally elevated over the longer term. Our base case view remains that US inflation will not be significantly above 2%, but this view may change if US tariffs are put in place permanently and the US avoids a recession.

Global currency markets have entered a new era. This implies that the framework for analyzing exchange rates must also change. We introduce a new framework for analyzing EM currencies and classify them into resilient and vulnerable categories. Finally, we are adding more EM domestic bonds to our portfolio and making many changes to our currency trades.

President Trump faces new restrictions on his trade powers coming from the US judicial branch, but they will not prevent him from continuing to restrict trade and investment with China. Rather, they will establish some curbs against entirely arbitrary executive tariffs, especially when wielded against US allies and partners.

On September 11, 1990, President George H. W. Bush addressed a joint session of Congress. The speech – which has come to be known as the “New World Order” address – referenced the emergence of a new geopolitical paradigm. While Bush Sr. was rather vague about what that paradigm was, his national security team filled out the details in subsequent addresses and writings. On December 4, 1992, as Bush Sr. announced the deployment of US troops to Somalia, it became clear that the New World Order was American hegemony.

This Insight looks at the implications of the RBNZ’s rate cut on New Zealand assets.

Several clients hailing from the global allocator community have schooled us to the existence of the “Section 899,” a feature of the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act” (OBBBA) that passed the House of Representatives on May 22. The bill is currently being reviewed by the Senate and Section 899 – which adds a new section to the US tax code titled “Enforcement of Remedies Against Unfair Foreign Taxes” – is likely to remain in place.

Rising bond yields may present an even greater danger to the global economy than the trade war. With equity valuations no longer discounting much economic risk, investors should position themselves defensively.

Chinese tourism will continue growing, but investors should be mindful not to overpay for Chinese tourism stocks by extrapolating their past double-digit revenue growth into the future.

Are bond yields overextended? We introduce a new global technical indicator that helps spot mean-reversion opportunities and shows which markets are nearing exhaustion.