Latest from BCA Research

Special Report

Preliminary results from the Philippine elections suggest that policy uncertainty and discontinuity will challenge the reform trajectory of a country with one of the best macroeconomic backdrops in the emerging market universe.

Special Report

The U.S. dollar has fallen to almost 5% below its 2016 peak. In this Special Report we explore the impact of a weaker dollar on key U.S. fixed income markets.

Special Report

To cheaply hedge against a "Leave" vote, go long U.K. inflation protection, reduce exposure to U.K. corporate debt, and position for a steepening of the Gilt curve.

We continue to view the rally in equities and high-yield corporate bonds since February as a high-risk affair.

U.S. dollar softness has failed to lift equities of late, a tentative warning that correlations are changing as the U.S. economy cools.

The trading action of gold is currently sending a bearish message on the dollar as the price of the precious metal has broken above critical resistance. Though the causation between the dollar and gold usually runs from the former to the latter, gold also has a tendency to sniff out broad-based moves in the greenback. We remain broadly short USD in our portfolio.

Special Report

Historically, carry trades have generated very large profits with limited volatility. Since 2008, this has not be the case. Going forward, carry trades should continue to underwhelm.