Latest from BCA Research

Special Report

This Special Report looks at global equity valuations. The conclusion is that although most equity markets are far from cheap, some compelling investment opportunities do exist.

Special Report

The only certainty regarding the next steps in the Brexit Saga is uncertainty. In the attached report, BCA's Geopolitical Strategy presents the BREXIT Decision Tree and reviews the possible next steps. We also collate all of the BCA investment views and strategies - tactical and strategic - that relate to the ongoing saga.

Global uncertainty is elevated, but markets know this. Brexit could prove extremely negative for the global economy if it prompts a questioning of the EU's integrity. The cyclical outlook for the pound remains poor, but a short-term opportunity to buy GBP/JPY has emerged. We still like the SEK and commodity currencies. The SNB will continue to intervene, but the peg is increasingly dangerous.

Post-Brexit uncertainty will continue for some time. But we were already cautiously positioned, and would not go any more defensive.

Even if commodity markets are not yet pricing a higher probability of fiscal stimulus following the U.K.'s Brexit vote, we believe they will begin doing so in very short order.

The Brexit drama has moved from the realms of psephology into the realms of game theory. How will the game play out? And how will the economy and financial markets react?

Special Report

The Brexit vote has ended the reflation trade, but does not represent a "Lehman moment" either. Stick close to benchmark in terms of broad asset allocation, and watch European bank CDS for signs that another financial crisis is brewing.

Bank Credit Analyst

The Brexit vote has ended the reflation trade, but does not represent a "Lehman moment" either. Stick close to benchmark in terms of broad asset allocation, and watch European bank CDS for signs that another financial crisis is brewing.