Latest from BCA Research

Bank Credit Analyst

In Section I, Doug recommends cutting US equity exposure in favor of Europe as reduced recession odds make it unlikely that the US will draw safe-haven capital flows. In Section II, Jesse ranks middle economic powers across hard and soft power dimensions and recommends investing in their defense and industrial sectors.

Special Report

Interest rate volatility is very low across developed market fixed income. Investors should maximize the carry in their portfolios to outperform in a low rate vol environment.

Special Report

Tech companies have historically generated profits from three main sources: 1) economies of scale; 2) network effects; and 3) proprietary technologies. AI threatens to undercut all three sources.

Special Report

The global drive to build a resilient ex-China rare earth supply chain is accelerating. It has emerged as a strategic priority and is backed by both public and private sector investment in many countries. In this Special Report, we argue that rare earth adjacent plays present a more attractive opportunity for investors looking to gain exposure to the rare earth capex cycle than a pure-play strategy.

M&A activity finally reaccelerated in Q4 2025—it’s just the start. Macro Hedge Funds have outperformed with top-decile performance from Discretionary Macro—but that’s towards the end. We move Macro from overweight to underweight and Event Driven from neutral to overweight.

The president did not announce significant new tax cuts or economic stimulus.

This report examines the implications for Chinese exports and global trade in light of the US Supreme Court’s ruling on tariffs.

The US economy is in the Slowdown phase of the business cycle, according to our measure of aggregate US economic activity; growth remains positive but acceleration is negative. Historically, this phase more often resolves in reacceleration than recession. Recent market price action, from the index, to sectors, to relative industry performance, broadly reflects typical Slowdown phase dynamics.

Special Report

We introduce our Macro Regime Indicators (MRI), a framework for forecasting growth and inflation surprises in the US. The MRI on the economy shows no substantial mispricing in either growth or inflation over the next 12 months.

Fourth quarter US GDP growth clocked in at 1.4%, well below consensus expectations of 2.8%. We are not too troubled by the miss. The government shutdown weighed on the economy, with government spending subtracting 0.9 percentage points from growth. Real private final domestic demand – a clean measure of GDP growth that excludes government expenditure, net exports, and inventories – rose by a respectable 2.4%.