Latest from BCA Research

Special Report

This week we present our outlook for the Fed in 2023.

Vietnamese stocks can remain shaky for a few more months. But they have cheapened considerably, and equity portfolios with longer terms investment horizon should overweight them in EM, Emerging Asia and Frontier Market portfolios.

Special Report

For the final publication of 2022, I am sending you a Special Report, The 2024 Election: A "Way Too Soon" Forecast penned by Chief US Political Strategist Matt Gertken. Matt argues that the Democratic Party is slightly favored to retain the White House in 2024 unless there is a recession. Since recession odds are fairly high, Republicans have a nearly even chance of winning. But they must also resolve their internal leadership struggle, which will be difficult.

Investors were heartened by the November CPI report, but the Fed said not so fast. Although it snuffed out the latest mini-rally, ongoing disinflation will set the stage for another one early next year.

Bank Credit Analyst

In this Special Report we use Equity Analyzer to explore the implementation of the 2023 Key Views on equities from various strategists at BCA Research.

On October 5th, we published an Insight Report “When Good News Is Bad News,” in which we called the beginning of the next bear market rally, which fit perfectly into our “flat and down” call for the market. Today, we are calling the end of this rally. We expect equities to make a new leg down in the first half of 2023, going as low as 3,000-3,200. We discuss the price target in detail in our 2023 Outlook.

Special Report

In this Special Report we use Equity Analyzer to explore the implementation of the 2023 Key Views on equities from various strategists at BCA Research.

Special Report

Energy and metal supplies are becoming increasingly scarce. In such a market, we will re-establish our long commodity exposure via the COMT ETF after being stopped out with a -4% return this week. We remain long equity exposure to oil and gas producers, and metals miners via the XOP and XME ETFs, respectively. Our energy recommendations closed this year posted an average 18.4% gain.

Special Report

Both the US and China have structural imbalances that need correcting. The former has a structurally imbalanced labour market in which demand far outstrips supply. The latter has a massively overvalued housing market. The concurrent correction of these two structural imbalances in the world’s two largest economies will necessitate a sharp slowdown in global growth, and leads to several investment conclusions.

Special Report

How to play the reopening? Which sectors will benefit the most? What will be the impact of the reopening on the rest of the world? Why is the PBoC facing the Impossible Trinity? Why has the PBoC tightened liquidity, prompting a rise in onshore interest rates? What are the implications for interest rates and the currency going forward? Is it time to upgrade Chinese onshore and offshore stocks?