Latest from BCA Research

Special Report

China’s semiconductor demand and imports will continue to contract in 2023H1. Despite economic reopening, Chinese consumers will hold back spending on smartphones, personal computers (PC) and other consumer electronics over the next six months. Meanwhile, overseas customers will continue to reduce their orders for electronic goods made in China following the excessive consumption experienced during the pandemic. There is more downside for both Chinese and global semiconductor share prices. We recommend a relative trade: long Chinese semiconductor stocks / short global semi stocks.

The BCA Score's safety tilt pays off in a turbulent year. USHQ outperformed the SPY in December and USHQ SMID performed inline with its MSCI US SMID Cap benchmark.

This week we present our Portfolio Allocation Summary for January 2023.

Special Report

This digest version of our Special Report contains its conclusion along with a high-level review of how we reached it. It is structured identically to the full document, but with less than half the word count, so a reader can swiftly absorb the punch line while easily moving between the versions to zoom in on the details most relevant to his/her process.

Today we are publishing a charts-only report focused on the key macroeconomic data as well as each GICS1 S&P 500 sector. Many of the charts are self-explanatory; to some we have added a short commentary. The charts cover macro, valuations, fundamentals, technicals, and the uses of cash. Our goal is to equip you with all the data you need to make investment decisions in these sectors.

India’s lofty EPS growth expectations are set for a major disappointment. The RBI has overtightened monetary policy despite the absence of any genuine inflationary pressures in India. Fiscal stance is also restrictive. Stay underweight this bourse in EM and Emerging Asian equity portfolios.

Special Report

Workers have a cyclical wind at their backs as labor demand exceeds supply, but a wage-price spiral is no more than a remote possibility. The structural backdrop has turned significantly against them since the last bout of high inflation 40-plus years ago and they are no longer price makers.

Special Report

Find out the latest updates of our Combined Mechanical Valuation Indicators (CMVIs) and our Rotation Maps.

Relative to beaten-down expectations, global growth will surprise on the upside in 2023. Investors should overweight equities for now but look to turn more defensive in the second half of the year.

MacroQuant Global Equity Score is bearish but increasing and the sector model upgraded Materials shifting the cyclical/defensive tilt closer to neutral.