Latest from BCA Research
Midterms matter but geopolitics are the main risk this year. Markets will eventually refocus on geopolitical and inflation risks, raising Fed rate hike odds and supporting US dollar and stocks over global counterparts this year.
For the first time since… 2022… the GeoMacro team is starting to contemplate the end of the cycle in a serious way.
The populist backlash against AI could result in bipartisan regulation in 2027, but is especially likely to prompt tax hikes from 2029.
In this screener report, we explore opportunities in: US copper beneficiaries; Australian Materials, Energy, and Industrial stocks; and US reinvestment-led Tech stocks.
Although the multi-decade surge in the value of households’ equity holdings has made US activity more vulnerable to a stock selloff, the latest income, spending and employment data suggest that consumption growth can carry on at a 2% inflation-adjusted pace.
The US High Quality (USHQ) portfolio outperformed its benchmark through May, returning 3.88%, while its SPY benchmark returned 2.25%. On a trailing three-month basis, the USHQ portfolio’s performance was weaker than the benchmark, with USHQ underperforming by approx. 86bps.
The AI boom will increase inflation in the near term and could also raise it over the long term. The Fed’s reluctance to hike rates is understandable, but it risks amplifying what may already be a brewing stock market bubble.
