Latest from BCA Research

Our political forecasting scored wins in 2023 but we failed to capitalize on it adequately in our trade recommendations.

A cyclical recovery in China’s economy is still not imminent. The PBoC has tightened interbank liquidity to stabilize the exchange rate since late August. This does not bode well for the real economy. The uptick in onshore bond yields and the RMB’s appreciation will be transient. Equity investors should stay cautious.

Bank Credit Analyst

Today, we are sending you the BCA annual outlook for 2024. The report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation with Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, who are long-time BCA clients with whom we discuss the economic and financial market outlook for the next twelve months toward the end of each year.

Bank Credit Analyst

Today, we are sending you the BCA annual outlook for 2024. The report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation with Mr. X and his daughter, Ms. X, who are long-time BCA clients with whom we discuss the economic and financial market outlook for the next twelve months toward the end of each year.

A series of notable events took place over the Thanksgiving holiday but none of them force us to change our fundamental assessments. The conflict in the Middle East is likely to escalate rather than de-escalate, while the Taiwan Strait has at least a 50/50 chance of seeing tensions escalate next year.

Special Report

Global smartphone demand will likely find a bottom in 2024Q1 and rebound modestly between 2024Q2 and Q4. Competition in the global smartphone market will intensify. Chinese phone makers will gain market share from Apple and Samsung. Continue overweighting Taiwanese stocks, including tech, within the global equity benchmark.

Special Report

President Biden is facing foreign challenges on three fronts and these challenges are coalescing around the critical states of the Midwest. Take risks off the table and stay defensive in 2024.

Special Report

The first stop of the EIS Special Series: PIGS Have Wings takes us to Portugal.

This report looks at the prospects for the Swedish krona, following the pause by the Riksbank.

Our kinked Phillips curve framework predicted the immaculate disinflation of 2023. That same framework is now warning that the global economy is heading towards a recession in the second half of 2024.