Latest from BCA Research
Our thoughts on this morning’s CPI release and some upside risks to inflation that could flare up in the months ahead.
Can Singapore stocks continue the bull run into 2025? What does the city-state’s manufacturing and export outlook foretell? Is the Singapore dollar still competitive? See our analysis and investment recommendations in today’s report.
This month, our Here, There, And Everywhere chartpack reiterates our main thesis for 2025: the three main narratives driving markets today – fiscal profligacy, trade war, and geopolitical conflict – will peak at some point in 2025. Why does this matter? All three have been tailwinds to US assets, and their peak should help usher in the peak in US outperformance relative to RoW. We conclude with some slides on our bullish Europe thesis.
The outgoing Biden administration has launched a slew of macro-relevant executive orders and regulatory actions. The one with immediate macro implications are the sanctions against Russian oil traders and its “dark fleet” of oil tankers.
In this first presentation of 2025, we start with an overview of the 2025 outlook webcast polls, and a brief post-mortem of the 2024 market performance. Then, we shift gears and examine what is behind the recent surge in bond yields and its implications for equities. We also review market technicals and positioning and conclude with a list of trades to prepare our portfolio for continued moves in yields.
To kick start our new research agenda at Equity Analyzer, we welcome you to our weekly screener report. Each week we will deliver three screeners highlighting stocks exposed to various macro and investment views and themes, that have either been suggested by various BCA strategies, such as the Global Investment Strategy, or are based on research by the Equity Analyzer team. In our first installment, we take a look at US Tech stocks, equity sentiment, and quality "bubble" stocks.
UK and German bonds are victims of the global bond market riots. Will European yields continue to move higher and will the euro and the pound find a floor anytime soon?
Markets initially celebrated the election results, but the party was less festive than it was in 2016-17. The macro backdrop is not as forgiving for deportations, reflation and tariffs as it was eight years ago, and the incoming administration could face a rougher ride than it did in its first go-round.
The US High Quality (USHQ) portfolio significantly underperformed in December, returning -5.4%, whilst its SPY benchmark returned -2.8%. Through the final quarter of 2024, USHQ also underperformed vs. benchmark, returning just 0.26%. Though disappointing, with BCA’s house view still expecting a recession in 2025, USHQ is poised to claw back some losses vs. benchmark through 2025.