FICC

Special Report

Yen weakness and rising JGB yields aren't a fiscal crisis; they're a market pricing an overheating economy and a BoJ falling behind the inflation curve. We lay out why the endgame is near, and what to watch before buying the yen this winter.

Goldilocks, with fault lines underneath. Our first joint FICC outlook lays out where growth, inflation, and policy are headed this quarter and where the calm could crack.

Special Report

We discuss what recommendations to expect from the Fed’s balance sheet task force. We conclude that any future balance sheet consolidation will be smaller than many anticipate.

Kevin Warsh announced an ambitious reform agenda for the Federal Reserve. We discuss the potential impact and the current outlook for interest rates.

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for June 2026.

FOMC participants are coalescing around the idea that the funds rate will stay on hold for some time, an outcome that is now well priced in the bond market and that will not materially change under a new Fed Chair.

The Fed will not cut rates again until core inflation trends lower. This remains likely as the tariff impact on goods inflation wanes, but the recent energy price shock could delay any meaningful downtrend.

The Fed will keep rates on hold in H1 2026, but dovish policy surprises are likely in the second half of the year.