FICC
| Currencies
Near-term trades and longer-term views on every major developed and emerging market currency.
In this week’s report, we assess the key reasons why the dollar has risen, and if that is set to continue.
In this report, we explore what a new BRICS+ union means for the dollar over the next 6-to-9 months.
In this report, we review our FX trade recommendations with suggestions on how to position for the next few months.
In this special report, we discuss whether the economic conditions necessary for a stronger yen (and higher JGB yields) will materialize over the next 12-to-18 months.
Time is running out on the Bank of England’s tightening cycle. UK economic growth is flirting with recession, unemployment is rising, house prices are contracting and inflation is decelerating. Markets are overestimating the eventual bottom in UK inflation, and thus are also underestimating how much the Bank of England will eventually cut rates in the next easing cycle, which could begin as soon as H1/2024. The backdrop is turning increasingly positive for Gilts on a medium-term basis, while the overbought pound is due for a breather.
In this insight, we assess the prospect of the Swiss franc over the next six months.
The DXY will continue to have near-term upside, as economic growth holds up in the US, while it deteriorates in other parts of the world. Remain constructive on the DXY at current levels, but pivot to a short position on evidence US growth is boosting the rest of the world.
In this report, we evaluate the breakdown in the dollar and next moves in the DXY, based on fundamentals, historical precedents, and technical patterns over the last few years.