FICC

After silver's parabolic surge, we assess the rally's vulnerability by examining its weakest links. We conclude that silver is ripe for a pullback.

Venezuelan crude output is unlikely to alter the global oil market outlook for this year. However, US control of Venezuelan crude is a risk to Canadian oil sands producers and Canadian oil prices. Go long US oil refiners/short Canadian oil producers.

The forces that have recently propelled aluminum prices will remain supportive over the near term. However, beyond the coming months, aluminum prices will retreat as bearish cyclical pressures overwhelm over the course of 2026.

Special Report

Risk assets in EM/China and cyclical commodities will sell off in H1 2026. A shift toward aggressive policy stimulus in China and a clear improvement in global manufacturing are needed to produce durable rallies in EM/China risk assets and the prices of energy and industrial metals.

Special Report

Commodity market analysis usually focuses heavily on supply-demand balances. Yet in this framework piece, we argue that reported balances are an overrated gauge of underlying commodity price trends.

Special Report

US intervention will likely force out Maduro from Venezuela and reopen the economy. This could increase Venezuelan crude production in the long run, a modestly bearish outcome for oil markets over cyclical and structural horizons.

Should investors chase the copper rally or use the latest bout of strength as an opportunity to sell? We warn that weakening Chinese demand and shrinking global manufacturing will weigh on the metal’s price over a cyclical timeframe.

US restrictions on Russian crude exports could disrupt global oil supplies and trade flows over the near term. However, they are unlikely to have a meaningful impact on crude prices over a cyclical timeframe. Stay short Brent.

Special Report

US-China decoupling and rare-earth supply disruptions created a unique opportunity for non-Chinese miners and refiners to scale production and achieve profitability. The build-out will be lengthy, costly, and fraught with challenges, but government support materially improves the odds. Rare-earth production outside China is a nascent investment theme; we are structurally bullish and recommend building a position by buying on dips by investing in a diversified basket of miners, presented in the report.

Silver’s short squeeze and stretched technicals warn of a potential tactical pullback.