FICC

Special Report

We discuss what recommendations to expect from the Fed’s balance sheet task force. We conclude that any future balance sheet consolidation will be smaller than many anticipate.

Special Report

Corporate health remains supportive of tight credit spreads in both the US and Europe, but a growing divide is emerging beneath the surface. Investment-grade issuers continue to strengthen, while lower-rated borrowers face mounting pressures. Credit markets are pricing resilience, leaving investors vulnerable should corporate fundamentals begin to deteriorate.

We react to DM central bank meetings this week and highlight the opportunities emerging across global fixed income and currency markets.

Kevin Warsh announced an ambitious reform agenda for the Federal Reserve. We discuss the potential impact and the current outlook for interest rates.

Special Report

Markets keep buying the dip because liquidity remains plentiful. That buffer lasts through 2026; the bigger question is what happens when it thins in 2027.

Today’s ECB rate hike is not the beginning of a hiking cycle. Growth concerns will soon move to the forefront of ECB policy decisions, preventing further tightening.

The Bank of Canada left rates unchanged and emphasized inflation risks from higher oil prices. We discuss why inflation and labor market data argue against the tightening currently priced.

May CPI data show no evidence of passthrough from energy prices to core inflation. This will keep the Fed on hold for the time being.

Our Portfolio Allocation Summary for June 2026.

Europe is sliding from stagflation toward recession as prolonged disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz weaken growth, labor markets, and supply chains while keeping inflation elevated. Even if a US-Iran deal is reached, limited fiscal support and rising food inflation leave the Euro Area increasingly vulnerable to a deeper economic downturn.