Essentials

Special Report

China holds a structural advantage in this "Age of Electricity" by operating the world's largest electricity system. However, this advantage has inherent limits, and the US remains competitive despite its challenges.

The US-Iran deal is a marginal improvement in global commodity supply risk, but we still give a 60% chance of renewed fighting later this year or in 2027.

Bank Credit Analyst

Four years after correctly calling Argentina's triumph, the Most Important of all Unimportant Forecasts returns. Who does our model crown in 2026? Let's find out.

Bank Credit Analyst

Every market cycle belongs to a longer history. The charts in the BCA Chartbook of Economic & Financial History trace the forces that have shaped economies, markets, and investment regimes across decades. That long view has guided BCA’s work since 1949.

Special Report

In Section II, Jonathan explores whether Kevin Warsh's appointment as Fed Chair signals a return to Greenspan-era, rules-based monetary policy.

AI excels at IQ but fails miserably at EQ. Hence, AI will obsolete any job that relies on IQ, including many graduate-level jobs. But high-EQ humans will be in high demand to pair up with AI, and many of these jobs will be middle income jobs. We discuss the implication for the economy and markets. Plus, a new tactical trade is underweight global tech versus healthcare.

Special Report

AI could be as transformative as the Agricultural or Industrial Revolutions. However, the fact that you are reading these words at the dawn of the AI age hints at a darker possibility, which is that AI will lead to humanity's demise. Fortunately, the most straightforward interpretation of quantum mechanics suggest you will only be conscious in those timelines where the world survives.

Special Report

A market becomes inefficient, illiquid, and vulnerable to a phase transition when the ‘wisdom of crowds’ switches to the ‘madness of crowds.’ This switch from market wisdom to market madness may be the most significant recurring behavioural opportunity in active fund management and can be exploited in real-time by measuring the market’s complexity.

Special Report

This Special Report argues that Australia and Canada are unloved, undervalued, and on the cusp of a structural re-rating. Long-term investors who wait for the catalysts to become obvious will miss the entry point.

Most of the increase in S&P 500 earnings estimates this year has stemmed from shortages. The oil shortage, which has pushed up estimates for energy companies, will fade once the military conflict is resolved. However, the shortage of semiconductors and other AI paraphernalia could persist for a while longer. As such, we are moving our recommended 12-month equity allocation from a slight underweight to neutral. We are already neutral on a 3-month horizon.