CoreMacro

Special Report

This Special Report argues that rate cuts will come sooner in Canada than the US and offers how investors can profit from this.

In this week’s report, we defend four out-of-consensus claims. Claim #1: Underlying inflation in the US is not reaccelerating. Claim #2: The US labor market is set to weaken abruptly. Claim #3: The S&P 500 will drop to 3700 in 2025. Claim #4: Japan is not in danger of a currency crisis.

Special Report

A deep dive into the balance sheets of top listed firms around the world suggests that corporate health differs substantially across key equity markets. To profit from these differences when the next recession arrives, we recommend that equity investors favor the US and Japan, be neutral on Europe while being wary of China for a range of compelling reasons.

This year’s rise in commodity prices represents a blow-off rally rather than the start of a durable bull market. The global economy is heading for a recession. Stocks, commodities, and other risk assets are vulnerable.

Contrary to conventional wisdom, most leading indicators suggest that the US labor market is weakening, including our very own “Mel rule.” After being overweight stocks last year, we moved to neutral at the start of 2024, and are now putting equities on downgrade watch with the expectation of shifting them to underweight later this year.

In this Strategy Outlook we examine why, contrary to popular perception, the odds of a global recession over the next 12 months are rising not falling.

Special Report

In this joint Foreign Exchange Strategy and Global Investment Strategy Special Report, we assess economic activity in Sweden, a highly cyclical and trade-oriented economy, and its implications for the global growth outlook.

Special Report

This Special Report by BCA Research former Chief Economist Martin Barnes ranks the major economies by their economic and financial performance to find out who comes out on top.

Many investors have cited the 1994 tightening cycle as an example of how the Fed managed to raise rates without triggering a recession. However, the unemployment rate was 6.5% in early 1994, which meant that inflation was less of a risk than it is today. Productivity growth also accelerated starting in the mid-1990s. While something similar may happen again thanks to AI, so far this is not visible in the aggregate productivity data.

Special Report

In this BCA Special Report, we ask what policies investors should expect if Donald Trump wins the 2024 Presidential election. The answer is that a second Trump term would be much less positive for risky assets than the first. While the US will remain democratic and geopolitically preeminent no matter the outcome of the 2024 election, a second term Trump administration would likely oversee large budget deficits, continued wealth inequality, labor shortages, high import prices, and an erosion of checks and balances, possibly including at the Federal Reserve. Trade policy under a second Trump presidency represents the greatest cyclical risk to investors, and the sequencing of policies in general will be important to monitor. An early legislative priority of immigration over tax cuts, alongside the rapid imposition of new tariffs, would be the worst alignment for risky assets.