CoreMacro

We apply a systematic approach to investing based on economic, inflation, and monetary policy surprises to the foreign exchange market. The signals from this framework are broadly consistent with the tactical views of our FX strategists, which anticipate a pause in the USD’s decline and a partial reversal of the recent euro strength.

Consensus sees one final ECB cut; we argue two are coming as deflationary forces are building in Europe. Dive in for the trade map: falling Bund yields, tighter peripheral spreads, and a euro primed for a 2026 rebound.

This insight gives life to four high-conviction views on European small caps, aero¬space & defense, banks, and telecoms by harnessing the power of BCA’s Equity Analyzer (EA).

EUR/USD is in a multi-year bull market. A short-term pause is likely, but the longer-term trend remains higher toward 1.25, and eventually 1.40.

We upgrade European small caps to maximum overweight and double down on our existing recommendation to go long European small caps relative to US ones.

Special Report

UK inflation risks are falling on the back of a weakening labor market. Read why Gilts and UK stocks are poised to outperform as BoE easing resumes.

Special Report

Switzerland looks pristine, but the near-term risks are mounting. Deflation pressures, overvalued assets, and a highly exposed export sector leave the economy vulnerable to a slowdown. This report explores why the SNB will ease more than markets expect, and how to position across CHF, equities, and bonds.

Special Report

France’s political turmoil is far from over, and fiscal fears are growing. This is not a bond-friendly environment. In contrast, it is a good time to upgrade French equities. As the 2027 presidential race is about to begin in earnest, we make an early call on its outcome.

The ECB is changing its tone, but don’t call it a pivot. Slower cuts, sticky disinflation, and a soft growth patch shift the opportunity set. We break down the tactical bond trades and why EUR/USD dips are still for buying.