CoreMacro

Many key equity indexes have failed to break above major resistance levels, while risky segments have begun to crack. Altogether, this suggests that a major peak in risk assets has probably been made. Short the MSCI EM stock index with a stop loss at 1470.

Indian stocks have further downside in absolute terms as profits disappoint. Their underperformance versus the EM equity benchmark, however, is late, which warrants a shift from underweight to neutral allocation.

We recommend a new relative tech equity trade that will likely produce positive returns over the next six to 12 months, regardless of whether the AI hype continues or reverses.

Brazil’s bleak macro outlook persists – rising debt, weak productivity, and political inertia. With 2026 elections looming, genuine reform seems unlikely, though Argentina’s bold turnaround could pressure Brasília to rethink its cycle of governability over growth.

Special Report

China's anti-involution policies will not end deflation or boost corporate profits on a sustainable basis. Authorities will be reluctant to cut industrial capacity as doing so would lead to layoffs. Consequently, production will continue to exceed demand, and price deflation will persist.

President Javier Milei’s electoral win has massively outperformed expectations. Meaningful legislative support and renewed market confidence will revitalize his liberalizing economic program. Our recommendation not to sell Argentine assets following the post-Buenos Aires election carnage has been validated.

Special Report

Investors should not count on buoyant growth in the ASEAN and Indian economies because of manufacturing relocation away from China in the next couple of years.

In global markets, speculative forces have intertwined with the sound fundamentals of specific equity segments, perplexing investors. This report aims to distinguish between excessive price run-ups and healthy fundamentals.

Special Report

With Sino-US tensions flaring up again, will Chinese manufacturers accelerate their overseas capacity shift? In this Special Report we examine China’s manufacturing offshoring through multiple lenses and tackle the key questions shaping its next phase.

The belief that net portfolio outflows out of the US will fuel EM assets is a common but misguided narrative. If the US starts experiencing net capital outflows, it would need to run a current account surplus. A shift in the US current account from deficit to surplus would be devastating for the global economy in general and EM in particular.