CoreMacro

This report revisits China’s property market through both cyclical and structural lenses, assesses the likely policy responses, and evaluates their investment implications.

By tracing patterns across China’s past three Five-Year Plans, we reveal how policy cycles shape markets—and what investors should expect in the next five years.

This month’s China High-Frequency Indicator (HFI) Chartbook decodes the conflicting messages in recent economic data, highlights key signals from our HFI, and explains what they mean for China’s economy and markets.

Special Report

Investors should not count on buoyant growth in the ASEAN and Indian economies because of manufacturing relocation away from China in the next couple of years.

Special Report

With Sino-US tensions flaring up again, will Chinese manufacturers accelerate their overseas capacity shift? In this Special Report we examine China’s manufacturing offshoring through multiple lenses and tackle the key questions shaping its next phase.

The CNY/USD has room to appreciate both cyclically and structurally, while nominal yields on China’s long-duration government bonds are set to fall. This combination supports Chinese equities.

Our high-frequency indicators show China’s growth momentum weakening further in September, increasing the likelihood of new stimulus in the weeks ahead. We remain tactically cautious on Chinese equities, but strategically constructive on offshore Chinese shares.

We are turning more constructive on Chinese internet stocks after several years of caution. We recommend going long offshore internet equities in absolute terms and upgrading MSCI China to overweight in a global equity portfolio.

Special Report

In this week’s Special Report, we introduce our newly constructed China High-Frequency Index (HFI). The HFI provides a timely measurement of China’s current economic conditions, helping investors to gauge cyclical turning points in the economy earlier and identify mini swings within a business cycle.

Special Report

Our newly constructed China Economic Pressure Indicator shows intensifying household stress, raising the likelihood of new policy support in the coming months. We recommend a tactical trade as a stimulus hedge.