The global drive to build a resilient ex-China rare earth supply chain is accelerating. It has emerged as a strategic priority and is backed by both public and private sector investment in many countries. In this Special Report, we argue that rare earth adjacent plays present a more attractive oppor...
M&A activity finally reaccelerated in Q4 2025—it’s just the start. Macro Hedge Funds have outperformed with top-decile performance from Discretionary Macro—but that’s towards the end. We move Macro from overweight to underweight and Event Driven from neutral to overweight....
The US economy is in the Slowdown phase of the business cycle, according to our measure of aggregate US economic activity; growth remains positive but acceleration is negative. Historically, this phase more often resolves in reacceleration than recession. Recent market price action, from the index, ...
We introduce our Macro Regime Indicators (MRI), a framework for forecasting growth and inflation surprises in the US. The MRI on the economy shows no substantial mispricing in either growth or inflation over the next 12 months....
Fourth quarter US GDP growth clocked in at 1.4%, well below consensus expectations of 2.8%. We are not too troubled by the miss. The government shutdown weighed on the economy, with government spending subtracting 0.9 percentage points from growth. Real private final domestic demand – a clean measur...
The “Chuck Norris Premium” is now fully in the market. Since the miraculously successful nabbing of President Nicolas Maduro on January 3, the odds of subsequent use of military against Iran increased....
The neutral rate in the US is being propped up by a variety of forces that are at risk of reversing. These include the AI capex boom, large budget deficits, and the extraordinarily high level of household wealth. As such, interest rates are likely to surprise to the downside over the next few years....
