Iran is effectively trying to create an “October surprise,” an adage that refers to a pre-election crisis that alters the trajectory of polling and the eventual outcome. It is likely to be successful, with oil prices likely to face upward momentum from here. The intention would be to ensure that oil...
With capital locked up for years, scenario analysis is especially valuable for Private Market investors. We provide a framework for mapping returns on new investments if the US 10-year yield hits 6.5%, a level last seen in 2000. Just do not expect the risk premiums of that era....
If President Milei does not ease policy immediately to contain the disinflationary squeeze, he is likely to lose next year's election. This means neoliberal structural reforms will suffer a setback in subsequent years. Close long positions in Argentine assets....
Democrats will win both houses in the midterm, but beyond near-term volatility, none of the outcomes pose a major market risk. The vote is more important as a signal of an anti-business turn in US policy in coming years, which markets could start to price in late 2027 or early 2028....
The big risk for the markets remains a flare up in the Middle East conflict. The Fed appears to be targeting geopolitics as much as inflation fundamentals. By the logic of transitive properties, therefore, more war means more hikes. That’s negative. So why are we not bearish on equities and bonds? B...
Democratic candidate for the Texas Senate seat, James Talarico, has been leading his opponent, Republican Ken Paxton, for over a month in the betting markets. At the moment, Talarico’s probability of turning the Texas Senate seat blue is a whopping 65%. This is partly a result of Paxton’s flawed can...
Markets woke up to twin Houthi attacks on October 12. On October 9, the Yemen-based, Iran-allied, militant group attacked the King Khalid International Airport with a missile, killing 12 civilians and injuring over 300. Following that attack, President Trump suggested that the US “may” join Saudi Ar...
Betting markets give Democrats a 90%-plus chance of flipping the House, but history suggests a midterm flip is business as usual, not a signal for 2028. Volatility measures suggest little of the typical election risk is priced at the index level, but stock-level volatility is elevated, particularly ...
Middle Eastern crude exports are back at pre-war levels, yet Brent remains above $100/bbl. We explain why more barrels haven’t meant lower prices, and why policymakers have no clean fix. Even if Putin follows through on his reported agreement to release Russian diesel supplies into global markets, i...
China's policy stance is gradually becoming more supportive of households, but a decisive reflationary pivot has yet to materialize. In the meantime, we favor large state-owned banks and onshore utilities as defensive plays....
