Emerging Markets
Outside semiconductor stocks, EM/China profitability has been well below both their US peers and the levels that prevailed during the EM structural bull market in the 2000s. Over a 3- to 5-year horizon, EM/China relative equity performance versus global will be range-bound.
MacroQuant recommends a slight underweight position in equities, and favors a below-benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios. The model is very positive on the US dollar, neutral on gold, constructive on copper, and very bullish on oil.
MacroQuant recommends underweighting equities and adopting a benchmark duration stance in fixed-income portfolios. The model is very positive on the US dollar, bearish on gold, neutral on copper, and bullish on oil.
AI is transformative, yet tech stocks may not produce positive returns. Market cycles have not disappeared. Greed and fear will still produce large share price fluctuations. Meanwhile, US inflation is the key near-term risk. Global non-tech capex aspirations also look overstated.