Latest from BCA Research

Greater safety for European taxpayers and bank depositors necessarily means more risk for bank equity and bond investors. We provide some detail, and also initiate two new short-term positions.

While the oil market looked right through the Russian-Saudi production-freeze announcement earlier this week, we believe these states may be attempting to put lipstick on the proverbial pig, to provide a plausible narrative to explain the physical reality of lower oil production in a sub-$30/bbl world.

There is no sign that the Chinese economy has suddenly lost momentum. The credit and monetary cycle appears to be picking up. Meanwhile, our bottom-up analysis shows no evidence of a rapid buildup in leverage in China's corporate sector, as commonly perceived.

Value in the U.S. Treasury market is rapidly deteriorating, and the 10-year Treasury yield is now consistent with our fair value projections. Investors should shift from an above-benchmark to a benchmark duration stance.

Reduce portfolio duration to neutral, while also cutting exposure to European bonds (both in the core and Periphery) and Canadian government bonds.