Latest from BCA Research

A dovish Fed bought the bounce a bit more time, but there is little incentive to add portfolio risk. Buy consumer finance, especially vs. banks, and expect communications equipment outperformance.

While the FOMC was more dovish than expected, rising inflation may cause the Fed to escalate hawkish rhetoric. The bounce in oil should help high-beta stocks. Underweight U.S. equities versus Europe, Japan and H-shares. We estimate U.S. equities will deliver returns of 4%, ann. over the next 10 years, vis-à-vis 9% for the euro area and Japan, and 14% for H-shares. Central banks have more options to combat any possible debt-deflation spiral in Europe/Japan/China than is often recognized.

A surprisingly dovish outcome from this week's FOMC meeting has led to broad-based weakness in the U.S. dollar. The monetary policy divergence supporting the dollar may have peaked.

Special Report

Most of the economic arguments in favor of the U.K. leaving the EU do not carry much weight, as we discuss in this collaboration between BCA's Geopolitical Strategy and European Investment Strategy. However, the probability is a coin toss - much higher than investors tend to think. We review the geopolitical and investment implications of the "Leave" and "Remain" scenarios.

We differ markedly with the U.S. EIA's assessment of the near-term evolution of oil supply and demand.