Latest from BCA Research

EM/China oil demand is not as strong as some reputable energy sources have indicated. As and when the oil market shifts its attention from supply cutbacks to subdued EM/China oil demand, oil prices will relapse. Renewed drop in commodities prices and poor growth in EM will weigh on EM risk assets going forward.

The Chinese government is engaging in a difficult balancing act between the imperative of maintaining growth momentum and structural reforms. Policymakers have eased off the gas pedal, but the impact of previous stimulative measures should continue to filter through the economy. Investors should also curb their enthusiasm in assessing China's demand-side countercyclical initiatives.

The secular stagnation narrative is gaining traction amongst the FOMC. Expect further downward revisions to longer run FOMC interest rates forecasts, toward levels already discounted in the Treasury curve.

We prefer to fade the recent fall in yields by moving to neutral on U.K. Gilts and underweight Australia, while maintaining a benchmark overall stance on portfolio duration.

The sinking global credit impulse warns that reflation has not overwhelmed deflationary forces. Financials will continue to suffer, while utilities and retail drug stores will benefit.

The Fed has reason to delay the next rate hike until at least September, even if volatility subsides after the June 23 Brexit vote.