Latest from BCA Research
The Fed is mispriced for the rest of 2025. We explain why the dollar is poised to rebound and the trades to position for it.
The Fed’s actions tell us that it has chosen to avoid a recession at the cost of moving its inflation goalposts to 3 percent. Thus begins the slippery slope to price instability. Long-term investors should underweight the dollar, own some gold, but better than gold is bitcoin. Plus, a new tactical trade is short GOOGL vs. SPY.
Median Fed unemployment rate projections are overly optimistic. The Fed will end up cutting more in 2026 than it currently anticipates.
Indonesia’s policy easing will boost domestic demand, but fuel inflation. Current account deficit will widen, and the rupiah will weaken. Stay short the rupiah and go underweight Indonesian stocks, domestic bonds, and sovereign credit in their respective EM portfolios.
This week, our screeners explore two AI-related investment ideas as well as opportunities arising from the politically induced sell-off in French stocks.