Latest from BCA Research

Bank Credit Analyst

Today, we are sending you the BCA annual outlook for 2026. The report is an edited transcript of our recent conversation with Mr. X and his daughter Ms. X, who are long-time BCA clients. Our discussion featured BCA’s economic and financial market outlook for the year ahead.

Q3 results were strong but failed to impress investors, and Q4 will likely prove more challenging. Beneath the surface, earnings diverged sharply: Firms catering to affluent consumers maintained solid momentum, while those reliant on the mass market lagged. We remain equal weight Consumer Services and underweight Consumer Staples.

Special Report

US intervention will likely force out Maduro from Venezuela and reopen the economy. This could increase Venezuelan crude production in the long run, a modestly bearish outcome for oil markets over cyclical and structural horizons.

US talks with Russia and China coincide with rising EU-Russia and Japan-China tensions. Stay overweight US assets and long Japanese yen.

Markets are misreading Japan’s fiscal headlines. Our latest Insight examines what will shape BoJ policy next, when intervention might come, and the timing of a yen reversal.

The September employment report probably won’t convince enough hawks to vote for a rate cut in December.

Many key equity indexes have failed to break above major resistance levels, while risky segments have begun to crack. Altogether, this suggests that a major peak in risk assets has probably been made. Short the MSCI EM stock index with a stop loss at 1470.

Special Report

Germany’s economy is regaining momentum after nearly two years of recession. Despite the ongoing cyclical rebound and fiscal stimulus, political gridlock and deep-seated structural challenges threaten to limit the country’s long-term growth potential. Investors should be underweight German Bunds and favor Eurozone equities over German equities.

This report revisits China’s property market through both cyclical and structural lenses, assesses the likely policy responses, and evaluates their investment implications.

Partisan redrawing of congressional districts will not prevent Democrats from retaking the House in the 2026 midterms. Neither will the Supreme Court's look at the Voting Rights Act.