Portfolio

Big Tech and the Trump administration are engineering an industrial boom that favors American hardware over American workers. Economic growth will be robust in the US but the labor market will stay relatively sluggish. Adopt an overweight stance on both equities and fixed income and underweight on cash. Upgrade Canadian equities and downgrade the UK. Upgrade Industrials and downgrade Consumer Staples. Upgrade EM Debt. Downgrade Private Credit.

MacroQuant is neutral-to-slightly positive on stocks on a tactical 1-to-3 month horizon but sees downside risks over a longer-term horizon. Its favorite equity sectors are communication services and IT. Regionally, it prefers EM and US equities. The model is bullish on duration. It remains bearish on the US dollar. It is upbeat on gold and copper but is slightly negative on oil.

US Real Estate has been under pressure post-2022. This chartpack offers a snapshot of the cap rate cycle across measures, sectors, and cities. Industrial and Multifamily spreads remain tight while Office and Retail have peaked. Chicago and Houston differ as cities, but their Real Estate trends look increasingly alike.

Special Report

Private Markets are entering a new phase as TPA and Evergreen funds expand. Shifts in access, implementation, and market leadership will have important implications for institutions, Wealth Management, and future Private Equity returns.

The NFL and NBA grab the headlines, but growth beats size. This report reveals the story behind Major League Soccer (MLS) growth. Valuations have jumped, yet plenty of upside remains—making the MLS relatively attractive compared to other US major leagues.

The US overconsumes and underproduces. China overproduces and underconsumes. There are early signs that this decades-old imbalance has peaked and is beginning to reverse. Upgrade the CNY to overweight.

MacroQuant sees downside risks to stocks over a long-term horizon but is not yet saying that we are at imminent risk of an equity bear market.

Special Report

We revamp several of our methodologies in this edition of our return assumptions. We estimate that a US 60/40 portfolio will return 6.1% over the next 10 years. This is slightly below the return assumptions for US pension funds. Investors can obtain better returns by diversifying internationally and to alternative assets.

In 7 charts and under 1,000 words, we reveal the real story behind AI Venture Capital. Valuations are not at extremes and IPOs do not signal a replay of the 2000 Tech Bubble—yet.

Special Report

Asset prices reflect expectations—but US Office Real Estate expectations are too pessimistic. We present the case for why strong fundamentals will drive performance, despite macro risks.