FICC
One macro framework for rates, FX, credit, and commodities, helping investors connect cross-market signals and position with clarity and conviction.
Our Q1 outlook maps global growth, curve dynamics, and policy surprises, which we then translate to our recommended global fixed income portfolio allocations and trades.
Measures of labor market utilization improved in December, ruling out a January cut and significantly reducing the odds of a March cut.
Venezuelan crude output is unlikely to alter the global oil market outlook for this year. However, US control of Venezuelan crude is a risk to Canadian oil sands producers and Canadian oil prices. Go long US oil refiners/short Canadian oil producers.
With FX volatility near cycle lows, this Insight examines where positioning has become most stretched across G10, EM FX, and precious metals – and what that implies for near-term moves and reversal risks.
From steepening to flattening. As the BoJ continues to tighten in 2026, we show why curve flatteners are finally the right trade.
The forces that have recently propelled aluminum prices will remain supportive over the near term. However, beyond the coming months, aluminum prices will retreat as bearish cyclical pressures overwhelm over the course of 2026.
