Democrats are still slightly favored for reelection as the incumbent party is presiding over a growing economy. However, Biden’s strong showing in the primary election is not lifting his popular approval yet, and that is a worrying sign. Policy uncertainty should rise sharply, which is marginally ne...
Presently, our four high-conviction themes are: (1) the US dollar will rally as US growth continues to outpace the rest of the world; (2) US equities will continue to outperform EM and European stocks until a major sell-off occurs; (3) a US profit margin squeeze is imminent; (4) EM domestic bonds an...
Many investors have cited the 1994 tightening cycle as an example of how the Fed managed to raise rates without triggering a recession. However, the unemployment rate was 6.5% in early 1994, which meant that inflation was less of a risk than it is today. Productivity growth also accelerated starting...
Qatar’s strategy to raise LNG output 84% by 2030 is a bold bet DM demand for energy security – and EM demand for affordable electricity to support economic and population growth – will remain a higher priority than eliminating fossil-fuel consumption over the next 20 years. This will accelerate the ...
On the one hand, China’s copper intake boomed last year despite the travails of the mainland economy and shrinking property construction. On the other hand, global copper supply mushroomed despite persistent worries about supply shortages. This report uncovers this puzzle and elaborates on the outlo...
Expected inflation has surged to its highest level in a year. This has surprised many people, but expected inflation is behaving just as expected. Expected inflation is not a prophecy, it is just a mathematical function of delivered inflation. We discuss what this means for central banks in the US, ...
The BCA Score L/S posted a positive return with Technicals and Sentiment leading the way. The USHQ SMID portfolio outperformed its benchmark again and the large cap portfolio fell behind slightly in tech, but made up ground via wins in Consumer Discretionary and Communication Services....
Our model is neutral on stocks on a absolute basis, meaning it expects global equities to perform inline with its historical average. On the sector front the model favors energy and growth with a modest tilt towards defensives....
