Republicans are favored but the election is still competitive. Equities, corporate credit, and cyclical sectors will fall until policy uncertainty is reduced....
According to BCA Research’s US Equity Strategy service, the stock market outperformance in 2024 thus far is an unusual pattern in election years. The historical data imply that the market will suffer a spill if investors come to believe the incumbent party will change. The spike in volatility in rec...
The Trump trade is just a trade, not an investment, and a risky trade at that. It wagers simultaneously on a soft landing and a Trump victory. Yet Trump's victory is more likely amid slowing economic growth than a soft landing. Investors should position for the slowdown first, then the trade shock, ...
Today, we are sending you a report recently published by BCA’s Emerging Markets Strategy service titled Little Cash On The Sidelines. Arthur Budaghyan, Chief EM/China Strategist, argues that “cash on the sidelines” in the US is low relative to the market value of investable US securities in general,...
A major slowdown in nominal growth was behind Indonesia’s recent stock underperformance. Dedicated EM equity portfolios should upgrade Indonesian stocks from underweight to neutral. We also recommend a new relative trade: go long Indonesian banks / short EM banks....
Brent prices have fallen 6% so far in July, reversing their June gains. Interestingly, these losses are occurring despite escalating Middle East tensions and quickening Chinese industrial profit growth in June (see The Numbers), both of which are supportive developments for oil prices. Within the br...
Investors hope that the ECB rate cuts priced into the curve will be sufficient to achieve a soft landing in Europe. History argues against this view, but will this time be different?...
This report takes a look at bond and FX market technical indicators and calibrates the decision to increase portfolio duration and get long the US dollar....
The absence of a catalyst that will boost Chinese steel demand dims the odds that iron ore and steel prices will recover over the coming six-to-nine months. Instead, we expect ferrous metals to face further downside into year-end....
According to BCA Research’s Bank Credit Analyst service, trade policy under a second Trump presidency represents one of the greatest cyclical risks to investors. A key question for investors is whether tariffs are prioritized early in the administration or saved for later. Our colleagues expect the ...
