The analysis of price complexity strongly suggests that the ‘yen carry trade’ and the AI bubble are one and the same trade, and that the trade has further to unwind. Plus, go tactically overweight China (CHIQ)....
China missed the chance to change course on economic policy and now it faces rising social instability and western protectionism. This policy approach implies it is not afraid of escalating strategic conflicts in East Asia. Investors should continue to underweight Greater Chinese assets. Any US-Chin...
Over the next three months, US equity investors face slowing economic growth, the unwinding of carry trades, skepticism about GAI, uncertainty about the Fed easing campaign, and a run-up to the Presidential election. Empirically, each event has led to lower returns and heightened volatility. A combi...
Market and economic observers have devoted a lot of attention to the Sahm Rule following July’s employment report, and whether or not it has been triggered. BCA’s analysis has highlighted that the overall direction of the labor market is far more important than the rounding conventions one applies t...
In this monthly review, we give our take on where bond yields and the dollar are headed. This is within the lens of revisiting our fundamental indicators....
The market backdrop changed a lot between the preparation and the publication of our equity downgrade report. We publish this companion Insight to help investors navigate the new environment....
The Conference Board measure of CEO Confidence declined in Q3, from 54 to 52, its lowest level so far this year. Still, a reading above 50 indicates that optimistic perceptions of business conditions outweigh pessimistic assessments. The Q3 survey marks a decline in CEO optimism, which had been impr...
